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Mounting apprehensions exist about the possibility of military engagement among Horn of Africa neighbors, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive language has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the sea coast through Eritrea has sparked a heated rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in the previous year that his nation's access to the sea was an vital issue, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Ties between the neighboring nations have regularly been difficult. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

Subsequently, a border war erupted in which numerous people died.

Recent Comments from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and army chief the army commander have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and implied the intention to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing access to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrean Response to the Claims

In the face of ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to brief comments on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry labeling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a approach of retaking previous domains.

The information ministry cautioned on mid-September that attempts to validate "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in the country, government media has shown graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The head of human resources department of the armed forces, General Hachalu, stated recently in an interview that the army was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Past Origins of the Tension

For decades from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British administration before turning into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this arrangement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year internal conflict ensued, ending with military reversal in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Although this ended in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors continued at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders endorsed a statement that the conflict was concluded – a move that earned the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in the northern region.

However ties have subsequently deteriorated anew.